cM :: MORLEY|DIGITAL

Nearly a year and a half ago I wrote about the unique triple-core processor from AMD.  I felt, and still do, that it’s a great play by AMD to flank Intel’s dual-core and quad-core processors.  My focus in that article was the retail mentality of your average consumer.  Three is better than two.  That’s what a brick-and-mortar buyer will see.

And now that AMD has released its new 45nm Phenom II line-up, the press has responded much more favorably this round to AMD.  But what has received the most attention and acclaim have been the value X4 810 and the X3 parts.  Because of their low cost, overclockability, and excellent performance against Intel’s Core 2 lineup, AMD has once again found a way to position itself against its larger, cash-laden competitor.  And what may be considered AMD’s finest processor is the surprising Phenom II X3 720 Black Edition.

Recently I wrote about Intel’s Core i7.  It simply rocks.  But it simply doesn’t sell.  According to Q1 reports, the X58 chipset - the only chipset that can run the i7, will be 1.8% of its chipset sales.  Let’s give Intel some benefit of the doubt and assume that in the range of 50% of those chipset are mobile, where there is no i7, and the X58 would make up less than 4% of desktop chipset sales.  That’s well within the 5% enthusiast market I continue to talk about. (read these two posts, they’re important to understand my mindset here)

AMD knows this, and so does Intel.  The fight’s between Phenom II and Core 2 until Intel decides to drop an anvil and make Core i7 mainstream.  By all accounts that won’t be until Q4 of this year or Q1 of next year.  Intel’s best selling chipsets are those used by Core 2 processors.

Till then AMD has a very, very competitive product that combines high frequency, performance out-flanking dual-core processors, a great price, and even a bone thrown to the enthusiast with its overclockability.

Combined with AMD’s strong 780G and 790GX chipsets and fantastic Radeon HD 4000 series lineup, AMD finally has the right mix of product to make a stand in this market.  

One company I haven’t mentioned in this mix but should - NVIDIA.  Remember they make chipsets that are readily available, have design wins, and are extremly powerful for both AMD Phenom and Intel Core 2 processors.  They may be having a spat with Intel over Core i7 licensing, but for now it’s not going to hurt them in the pocket book.

[Disclosure:  I run a Core 2 Quad Q9550 in my main rig.  I currently have a GeForce GTX 280 and a Radeon HD 4870 X2 I play with.  I have two laptops with Intel chips and chipsets and one with an AMD processor with NVIDIA chipset.  My media center has an AMD processor with an AMD chipset.  I am a technologist that just loves tech and am brand-agnostic.  I think all these companies make great products that sometimes you just have to use in an manner fitting to their price and performance.  My opinions are my own and do not necessarily represent those of SolidWavePC or Fluid Digital.]

When chip developers, be it Intel, AMD, or NVIDIA, design new technology, they tend to stratify the product in a way that will appeal to various markets.

They do this several ways.  They can speed-bin the parts and cull the fastest performers and market them under a premium label, or they can go the other way and take lesser performing parts and market them to the mainstream.  Everyone, in fact, does both.  Either way they are able to get the most out of their research and development dollars pumped into the product while delivering value to the consumer.

Focusing on the graphics card market for a moment, take a look at AMD/ATI and NVIDIA’s products.  They feature various amounts of stream processors operating at varying frequencies.  These processors are paired up with different types of memory configured in varying capacities and bandwidth.

Now, there seems to be accusations (mostly by fanboys in forums - but also by snide remarks from tech press) levied against NVIDIA right now that they are somehow being dishonest in what is being called a “rebranding” of their G92 chip.  This chip formed the basis of the 8800GT and the 9800 series solutions.  It’s a powerful chip that delivers great performance.  It was derived from the G80 chip, the original 8800 GTX, which was the reigning speed king for 18 months.  Since then NVIDIA has been able to shrink the chip, increase clock speeds, reconfigure the types of memory it works with, and even remove stream processors to create products that are priced to meet market needs and compete with AMD/ATI.  The whole time making more peformance available to more people at better price points.

Now that NVIDIA has had a whole new architecture available to them for several months now, the GT200, NVIDIA needs to be able to do the same thing - stratify.  The 65nm GT200 is used in the GTX 260 and 280.  The 55nm GT200b are utilized in the GTX 285 and 295.  These are high end components that serve a small market niche and are large, power hungry, and expensive.  They’re also silly fast.  

One thing to keep in mind at this point is that the GT200 does not introduce any new feature sets.  Compared to the GeForce 9-series, it “merely” features more stream processors and memory bandwidth.  It’s not a DirectX 11 part.  It’s just pure muscle based on the same architecture dating back to the G80.  And that’s not a bad thing in the least.  AMD does the same thing.  The very successful Radeon HD 4800 series are built upon the same basic philosophy as the not-so-successful Radeon HD 2900.  They just tweaked it, shrunk it, dded stream processors, and repositioned it.

So NVIDIA has to make the choice on how to “fill down” their product stack.  Given their GTX 200 naming convention, the obvious choices would be something like the GTS 250 or the GTS 240, which is what the tech press is reporting.  Given that the current GTX 260 has 216 stream processors and the GTX 285 has 240, how would you design the value parts that NVIDIA needs to compete in the mainstream if you were in their product group?

Well, let’s start by subtracting stream processors and some memory bandwidth.  128 stream processors is pretty hefty, wouldn’t you think?  I mean, that’s as many as the recently released HP Firebird has.  And that machine is getting a lot of attention!  And let’s chop that memory bandwidth up - boy those 512-bit traces make for an expensive PCB.  Let’s go 256-bit.  OK…next step.  Do we take our large, expensive GT 200 chip and disable stream processors or…wait a moment, don’t we have a chip that already meets this feature set?

Yeah, it’s the G92.  Which, btw, will get a nice performance boost as well.

It’s good for the consumers.  They now have a product lineup that will make sense from top to bottom, both pricing and performance.  There is nothing nefarious about what NVIDIA is doing.  They are pricing and positioning these new products against their GT200-based bretheren.  And the G92 nips at the heals of the GTX 260, so it’s a smart chip to start with.  Consumers win.

It’s good for the channel.  This economy sucks.  But we still need to move new product.  These parts are new.  They make it easier for us to talk to the customer about value vs performance.  Boutiques, system builders, retailers, e-tailers, and distys win.

It’s good for NVIDIA and their shareholders.  NVIDIA is able to continue to make money on a product that they originally designed over 2 years ago.  Their architecture has legs and as long as they can continue to deliver value to the customer and bring in profits, it will only help them be a stronger company.  And that’s a good thing for everyone because:

It’s good for competition.  Do you think that AMD stands idly by and lets NVIDIA make these movements in a vacuum?  No, they change their pricing and products accordingly.  Who knows, maybe it’ll spark a new mid-range GPU throwdown.  

And who doesn’t like a good cage fight?

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I gotta tell you what, on the heels of AMD annoucing they’ve sold 2,000,000 Radeon HD 4800 series graphics cards, this video is not only hysterical, but indicates a more confident AMD/ATI - a company that is having a personality disorder right now with their lopsided strengths in the CPU/GPU market.

This video, however, makes digs at NVIDIA in ways that only geeks understand.  Hinting at manufacturing processes and defaults, memory speeds, etc.  The reference to the X58 is dubious as NVIDIA has said publicly that they will certify BIOSs for native X58 SLI support without requiring motherboard manufacturers to license MCP 200 chips - that’s only necessary if you want maximum bandwidth on multiple x16 slots.  But like I’ve said, the value of multiple graphics cards these days are dubious at best.

These “viral” videos are great fun to watch.  But it’s preaching to the choir.  It’s not going to prompt consumer behavior.  It’s not going to drive consumers to ditch NVIDIA and go ATI.  And if your branding campaign only creates awareness and doesn’t deliver to the bottom line, you win a big bag of fail.

A good example of similar marketing that is successful would be the Apple I’m a Mac commercials.  They aren’t successful because they are funny or witty.  They are successful because they communicate the simple premise that Macs are fun, easy, and reliable, and PCs are boring, bloated, and broken.  Of course, I would argue that most I’m a Mac commercials are down right lies at worst, and I chuckle every time I watch them on my ultra-reliable, uber-cool Vista Media Center PC with digital cable tuners.  But the point is that Apple has effectively convinced a large segment of the mainstream market the fundamental idea that Mac = good and PC = bad.  Republicans and Democrats do this all the time.

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But Apple is beginning to lose focus.  While the G4saurus video is cute and funny to people like me and most of you who read this blog, it’s really just AMD/ATI’s engineering group giving NVIDIA’s engineering group the metaphorical finger through their marketing department.  Apple has done basically the same thing with their latest I’m a Mac commercial - their marketing department is giving Microsoft’s marketing department the metaphorical finger after Microsoft’s relatively successful, relevant, and above all positive  response to the I’m a Mac commercials.  Of course you know I’m talking about the commercials where people from all walks of life state they are a PC and they are all different.  It’s simple, it’s relevant, and it’s positive.  It doesn’t stoop to Apple’s level and I think they’re quite enjoyable.  But it doesn’t prompt consumer action.  That’s where Mojave comes in.  Just check it out for yourself, I don’t need to expound upon it here.

My point is, while AMD has delivered the funniest viral video I’ve seen in this business, they need to come up with an effective campaign that not only creates awareness, but brings more customers to the table.  And that means they need a successful Phenom II launch, stay focused on the platform story, and continue to keep the channel happy.  Wait, where’d marketing fit into all that?  ;-)

The days of needing multiple graphics cards in your PC are officially over. While game engines have become more complex, and Crysis still confounds most people’s PCs, the fact is that we have reached a pixel density plateau when it comes to monitor sizes and the GPU battle grounds are being fought at 1680×1050 resolutions or lower¹. And the simple fact of the matter is that at that resolution nearly every game on the planet can be enjoyed by the mainstream gamer utilizing a single graphics card. The hardware side of the gaming industry has gotten that good.

But don’t tell that to AMD or NVIDIA or even Intel. Don’t tell that to the system builders, but would somebody please tell that to the tech journalists? The fact is that multi-card technology, not multiple GPUs on the same PCB, allows chipset manufacturers to stratify their offerings (read: charge more money), promising more performance and more “expandability” – but costing you more money.  The fact is that these technologies are aimed squarely at the 5% uber-enthusiast market and system builders who need to win synthetic benchmarks by 3% in order to pay their salaries that month. 

Expandability or upgradeability are the buzz words that these companies use to lure you to their higher end chipsets. They want you to think you need a second or third graphics card. But most effectively, they communicate to you that you are buying “future expandability” that will “future-proof” your PC. And they’ve effectively brainwashed the mainstream tech media into believing the same thing. It’s hard to find a review of a gaming system that doesn’t include the ability to add a second graphics card where the reviewer doesn’t “ding” the builder for it. 

But nobody has ever really studied the usage patterns and buying behaviors of customers who purchase multi-video card capable motherboards and SLI or CrossFire capable graphics cards. It is that question that intrigues me, and it is simple logic that leads me to the conclusion I have written in the opening sentence of this post. 

The main problem is, if you aren’t gaming at XHD resolutions that 24”+ monitors support, spending money on two high end graphics cards is a complete waste of money, and buying two mid-range graphics cards is pointless as a single high-end card that may feature two of the same GPU on one PCB can easily meet or beat it for around the same combined price. Factor in the total cost of ownership of forgoing a more expensive chipset designed for multi-video card support, and you really need to make sure you’re spending your money the right way.

Additionally, if you’ve spent your money on an XHD monitor, and only have a budget left over for a single high end graphics card, never mind the fact that you perhaps bought an unbalanced configuration, but the odds of a better single card solution being available by the time you can afford that second card are high. Why do you think EVGA offers a 90-day trade-up program? It’s essentially an insurance policy against the age-old truism that your system is obsolete the day you buy it. 

Don’t take my word for it. Kyle and Brent at [H]ard|OCP have been shoving the term “real world benchmarks” in our faces for so many years now that every piss-ant rag on the internet and in print uses the terminology without really understanding what it means. But if you really look at what [H] video card reviews show, you’ll find that at 1680×1050 resolutions and lower, my premise holds. From there it’s a simple matter of adding up the total cost of ownership to reach the playable settings (meaning a smooth gaming experience.) So be sure that you aren’t blindly buying a dual or triple-graphics capable motherboard for $200-$300 when a significantly cheaper, and perhaps a bit more boring, solution will suffice, allowing you to spend more money on a powerful, single video card that will better serve your needs. 

1. Source: Valve Steam Hardware survey, November 2008. 96% of players have resolutions set to 1680×1050 or lower. Sample size: ~1.7 million users.

You know the old saying, “Half of life is just showing up”?  I think it’s also followed by “The other half is showing up on time.”  While both are true, the former is what benefited MAINGEAR @ Quakecon 2008 this year.  We had a prominent position at AMD’s booth, and while the competition sent machines, no one bothered to send people. 

So we got to do a lot of mingling with AMD fans and gaming enthusiasts, and were really able to bring our message of performance, reliability, and customer service to the old and young alike.  Wallace and I were AMD’s “Ask the experts” panel and we had a lot of fun talking about AMD technology, being a boutique PC builder, and I even got to talk about some of my favorite subjects like bloatware, crappy chassis, and other stuff.

But two things just blew me away.  Getting to go up on the main stage and give away a MAINGEAR PC in front of a huge crowd of people was just awesome.  Everyone was so excited to be there and the kid who won our F131 was shaking as he filled out some paperwork.  We put a brand new system in the last of the first F131 chassis we ever used.  We painted it red for AMD/ATI, and it was kinda emotional for some of us as we were really giving a part of our history.

You can see me talking about it here.

The other great experience was being involved in a documentary about gamers and the gaming industry.  Wallace, Wendel, and I were all interviewed both one on one, and at our booth about what it’s like to be in the gaming business and actually make money at it, compete with the Tier 1s, what a boutique PC builder really is, and a whole bunch of other stuff.  It was produced by a Tonight Show producer and I have no idea where it’s going to air or when, but the last one they did ended up on MTV.  So we’ll see.

Which is why it’s with a heavy heart that I must tell you that I’ll be transitioning away from MAINGEAR shortly.  MAINGEAR has been a labor of love for me over the past year and was never about the money.  Wallace and crew really restored my faith in this business and I couldn’t be more proud of the work we have done and what we have accomplished.  They are truly a force for good in this business. 

But I’ve been offered such an incredible opportunity that every day this week I have pinched myself to make sure it’s not just a dream.  The possibilities are endless and I couldn’t be more excited.  I can’t talk much more about it, and I really wanted this post to be about my love and respect for MAINGEAR, so I’ll save it for another day.